Putting the Odds in Your Favour
To look at a guy like Woody Allen, you’d never think he had a chance at being a household name and a famous comedy star. I mean, let’s be honest he’s a bit odd looking, has a very peculiar manner and if you met him on the street you’d think he was just an amusing eccentric. When he was asked some years ago how he came to success, his reply was that "80 percent of success is just showing up". Early in his career with nothing happening, he just used to go to every single audition, party, event, opening, anything that was going on.
People like to talk about luck being a factor in success, and you could say that eventually that’s exactly what happened, Allen got lucky. But of course the message in this story is not that he got lucky, but that he set it up so that he could get lucky.
A few weeks ago I came across an interview on Mixergy of Owen Byrne whose name you might not know, but whose handiwork you will – he was the original coder behind Digg. While the whole interview is worth watching, there’s a particularly quotable moment when Byrne says:
"Luck is really probability and probability means if you’re persistent and keep trying eventually the probability is you’re going to succeed."
Like most entrepreneurs I too would claim that I’ve been lucky. But look a little deeper and I’d also say I’ve been unlucky. There are plenty of moments where things have gone wrong, money has been wasted, sites haven’t worked out or things just haven’t gone to plan. But they are just setbacks and in the face of dogged persistence, they quickly fade into the distance.
Setting yourself up to be lucky means taking the shot … over and over until it happens. After all the only certain thing in life is that if you don’t take the shot you won’t score.
Great thoughts. I just launched my first web app and this was a good reminder that it’s not the end of the world if it doesn’t take off. Thanks!
I agree Owen Byrne’s take on probability, but
luck is not probability, it’s more akin to ignorance. Probability is having some evidence that “inclines the mind to believe but leaves some room for doubt” in other words working with limited knowledge. Typically, If something happens and you have no idea why it happens, you say you’re lucky or unlucky, that’s ignorance. If you work hard then become successful, luck had nothing to do with it. Luck is carry over from the days when people believe in the god or goddess of good luck and your life is determine by fate.
Whenever an entrepreneur says he’s lucky, I think he’s either silly or just trying to be humble. If you think you’re lucky go play the lotto. If you work hard but still fail, it’s because you did not have enough knowledge to prevent failure. Even if it was accident or force of nature that caused the failure, our lack of knowledge was the real reason we did not avoid the accident or avoid the natural disaster. Luck and superstition does not advance knowledge and it does not help your business. The more we know about a situation the better we are. The more you know about your product, your service, your clients and customer, your business, better off you’ll be at making decisions to reach a desired outcome. We may never have complete knowledge, but you don’t need complete knowledge, just enough. What is enough ? You’ll know when you succeed and continue to succeed
I typically agree with Collis, but I don’t think you should be setting yourself up to be lucky, I think you should be setting yourself up to be successful. I know most people will think it’s the same thing. There is a difference. Remember luck is ignorance, To illustrate there are two hunters, one who practiced marksmanship then honed his survival and tracking skills, the other did not, he just took a lot of bullets with him. Who is more likely to be successful ?
I personally do not believe in luck although most people will call it such.
I used to have this on over my desk:
“Luck Favors the Prepared Individual”
Show up and be prepared and things will “magically” happen. How odd, eh?
I think luck is a question of moderation and psychology. Expect something to just happen, probability dictates it won’t. Although not impossible, the chances are slim.
Push too hard for something and you may lose sight of what is viable and your ability to make crucial decisions deteriorates.
Keep your personality, instinct, persistence etc. in tact and chances are things may fall in to place.
Luck is a nice thought, but I don’t necessarily believe in luck either. I do, however, believe in hard work and perseverance. I am an optimist and believe that if you are persistent and work hard to achieve your goals/objectives, you will eventually make it.
Although, I also believe it’s a never ending pursuit. Goals/objectives evolve and change as the individual pursuing them grows. It’s really an ongoing process.
But, yes, I agree that with hard work and perseverance the odds will definitely be in your favor.
It is a very nice article. Seeing luck from another point of view. I love it.
Great piece. I absolutely agree that in order to find success, you have be in the game.
I have a friend who’s trying to write and pitch a comedy show to TV networks, and he has continously talked of finding that “big break”. Unfortunately, he spends most of his time procrastinating, or scrutinizing over the details of the 5 minute pitch episode, without doing all the legwork of networking, building an audience (online), etc. He seems to think at some point, it will just happen.
You have to put yourself in a position to get a break.
I find luck generally works best when you “stack the deck.” Not necessarily cheating or being subversive, but using knowledge and resources that set you apart. Building a decent strategy, having superior talent, and being coherent to opportunities are all ways to tip the odds in your favor.
Reality TV does it all the time:
- Find a way to loosen up people with free booze
- Pick a character group with natural conflicts
- Use selective editing to get the best story
Granted, I hate reality TV for these reasons. I do, however, think you have to find ways to stack the deck in your app or services favor. The big question becomes: How do I “stack the deck” in my application/business/services favor?
Are you aware that some guy is making money off of one of your designs? Here is the link. I thought you’d be interested… sorry, didn’t know how else to reach you. http://guerrilla705.deviantart.com/art/Space-Explosion-124834428
Nice quote from Owen Byrne. Thanks for the link to the interview too. Great history of Digg.com in there.
Nice article Collis. I agree with many of the things you said and the comments as well. It’s like winning the lotto essentially but with more chances of winning depending on which way you go. The beauty of it I suppose is no matter if you fail at your business you can always pick up and try again. Eventually you will find where you fit.
The only way to give up is to join the corporate ladder again as an employee because you felt like you couldn’t cut the mustard as your own boss. Mindless work that doesn’t make you happy will make you a slave.
the hard road to sucess..
Hey, Great post Collis! And one thing, is this site powered by WordPress?
To me, luck is where preparation meets opportunity. The hard work is preparation. When opportunity comes, the one who has worked hard to prepare is the one who can take advantage of the opportunity.
People call him lucky, but they don’t see the hard work he had put in before that.
I totally agree with David O (second comment).
This is a great message and I totally agree.
Yo!
I very much enjoyed your work in a tutorial where they used the font: Cues_Ver6 with the theme Supernatural
Link: http://psd.tutsplus.com/text-effects-tutorials/a-slick-supernatural-text-effect/
And I know where the font has, and who knows me by email.
thank you very much!
Att. Jeff
I agree that luck does seem to evolve out of perseverance, and it is hard to see how it can just happen, but just for a second take a look and there just might be real luck floating by our windows, and we could miss it.
Great post. I think that a good factor is luck…but you have to make your own luck happen, if you do not move and make things happen luck will not come by itself to you.
Least Updated Blog Ever. I liked where this blog was going at first but it’s updated way too rarely. Sorry to say but for now, removing from RSS reader.
I’ve been lost too many times to believe in luck. Somehow, though, I would always need to be lost to find what I needed.
“The more I practice, the luckier I get” – Gary Player
Persistence = Luck
If you can survive all of the thing that kill entrepreneurs then some may also call you “lucky”. I believe it’s shear tenacity.
THANK YOU!! just recently graduated from college at the point of feeling defeated however this article gave me a more positive outlook
Ron Popiel, I think, has said “I’ve been a Millionaire 6 times!”, in his infomercials in America.
My father told me that means he went into bankruptcy 5 times! Maybe even 6 times!
Persistence does pay off!